Who Uses Google Trends?

Coming from an engineering background I’ve been conditioned to appreciate the value of data in shaping my decisions. It’s all part of the Scientific Process, which was introduced to us back around the 5th grade, but unless we went on to pursue careers in science-based  fields, we promptly forgot about it.

However, if we eventually wandered over to the field of IM, then we started hearing the incessant chant of “testing and tracking“.

Jeez! All the techy stuff is bad enough, but now we’re expected to learn about A-B split testing, Taguchi methods, and Chi-Squared analysis.

If it’s any consolation, I have no clue what the last 2 methods are and only pretend to do the first. At some point, I should study marketing a bit more in depth and also dust off my college Stats 101 books.

But I still like analyzing stats and trying to decipher what they’re attempting to tell me. There’s plenty of data out there, but like herding cats, it can make you crazy at times trying to get a handle on all of it.

In statistics, there are 2 kinds of stats (data), descriptive and predictive. Most of the data we deal with is of the descriptive variety — tells has where we’ve been and describes the way things currently are. The most elusive kinds of data is the kind that can predict the future.

You know, having a virtual crystal ball.

What would it be worth to you if you could see 6 to 12 months into the future and know with a high degree of certainty that a particular niche market is going to take off?

Or even see what’s on fire in the search engines (Google) at this very moment in time.

Now of course, predictive data is actually based on past results, but it does at least create the illusion that we can predict the future. This type of prediction relies on probability and of course can never be 100% accurate.

Enter Google Trends

Formerly know as Google Zeitgeist, and apparently still a Beta project under Google Labs, Google Trends provides an intriguing snapshot of the top-100 searches on Google on an almost hour-by-hour basis.

In many instances, the types of searches showing up in the top-100 are extremely fleeting and are of little use in IM market research. For instance, this morning here in the northeastern part of the US we’re experiencing freezing rain, and as to be expected, there are quite a few searches for school closings information.

You can also track the almost hour-by-hour ramp up and cool downs around holidays.

In the days prior to Thanksgiving there are loads of searches for the best green bean casserole recipes. Then on Thanksgiving morning there are the frantic searches for how to roast a turkey. Later on in the day searches for how to carve a turkey begin popping up and nigh on in the evening the search for “Black Friday” sales begin to appear.

Guess what kinds of searches are performed on the day after Thanksgiving?

You guessed it — recipes for turkey tetrazzini and turkey pot pie.

Actually, I’ve become fanatical about using Google Trends on a daily basis to search for potential niche markets to explore.

I’ll even refer to it several times throughout the day because the searches are constantly changing. I wrote a bonus report how I use Google Trends to spot hot nice markets and it is included in my “Rapid Landing Page Generator” software product that will be available for general release in a few weeks.

But I want to demonstrate another feature of Google Trends that can be used to uncover some very reliable seasonal market trends and is uncanny in matching up with what I’ve actually experienced from some of my own marketing.

Below is a screenshot for a niche market that I entered into the trends search of Google Trends. The keyword is pretty generic “swimsuits“. I play in a micro niche of this market and have independently discovered the 2 seasonal peaks shown in the trends graph in the screenshot below:

 As you can see, there are 2 seasonal peaks in the swimsuit market:

-The first months of the year, beginning in late December and peaking in mid-February.

-The second one begins to ramp up in April and peaks in  early June only to taper off rapidly and remain flat from August thru December where the cycle repeats itself. You can see this exact same pattern for each year displayed.

The lettered flags correspond to news stories related to the niche and they may or may not give a slight pop to the search traffic for the niche, however, the overall shape of the trend graph remains constant.

So what does the trend data do for me?

Well, as a PPC marketer I can overlay it with my own past results and know when to start and end a PPC campaign to achieve more efficiency and hopefully a better ROI.

I can also run new niches through this to get an idea of seasonal trends and then plan accordingly.

The important point to remember is just because search volume begins to increase at a certain point in time, it might not convert as well as at other points on the trend graph. Like any predictive tool, it serves as a point of reference when first starting. You will need to go through the seasonal cycle at least once to get a truer understanding of how things really play out for a market.