Prediction For a Dark Holiday Shopping Season

I truly don’t mean for IMMania.com to become a mirror of CNBC, but being an affiliate marketer, it’s in my best interests to follow consumer trends. And the latest reports from the retailing front lines are not at all encouraging. Unrelenting pressures from the cost of energy as well as a declining job market have left many American consumers in a foul mood. When this happens, government and business can no longer rely on the stalwart consumer to prop up a sick economy with his wallet.

Those economic stimulus checks have long since run out and the American consumer is now left with juggling his budget across putting gas in the car, food on the table, and sky-high health care costs. Things like a family vacation and a new car have been placed on indefinite hold.

Priorities.

Retailers are already noticing a slow down in “Back To School” spending. Heck, consumers themselves are saying they are holding out for the lowest prices on school supplies that they can find. Sort of reminds you of last year’s Christmas Shopping Season. In fact, the “Back To School” shopping season is second to only the Christmas Shopping Season in store receipts.

So what does this portend for Christmas 2008?

My prediction is that it’s going to be bloody. It’s a shame that what should be a joyous time of year will be clouded over with incessant talk about holiday retail sales and how bad they will most likely be. I’ll go even further in my predictions and speculate that the first quarter of 2009 will be a very tough time for Wall Street as retailers post their dismal numbers for the holiday season just past. These numbers could be some of the worst in recent memory.

Whomever is the next president of the United States is really going to need to hit the ground running.

Not only with the international mess confronting him, but the economic mess that exists at home. Maybe we’ll get another round of “stimulus” checks. Might become an annual thing around here.

To keep things in perspective, what does an American economy coming apart at the seams mean for us as affiliate marketers?

Obviously, first off, we’ll probably see a drop off in commissions this holiday season since we rely on consumers spending money with the merchants we promote. Of course, a lot will depend on what markets we’re in. In light of all this, I think this is the time to sit down and access the niches you’re in and how they have been trending over the past year.

Have commissions declined, increased, or held steady?

Have your promotional channels, articles, PPC, Web 2.0 traffic sources, produced in these niches?

If there is one bright spot in all this, I think it’s that online shopping will have another record year in terms of growth over last year. So, if nothing else, identify the niches and products where most of the holiday shopping spending will occur and see if you can get in front of it with online promotions.